Mon, Jan 16, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 18 | 213 | 329 |
| COL | 210 | 312 | 15 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:04COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:05COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 10:06COLJ.T. CompherPPGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 15:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
- P2 18:58DETAndrew CoppAssists: David Perron, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 3:40DETBen ChiarotAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 5:24COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–6
- P3 19:26DETDavid PerronAssists: Moritz Seider, Michael Rasmussen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:12DETDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 11:13COLLogan O'Connor: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:26DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:25DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:41DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31COLAlex Newhook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:32DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:32COLEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Rasmussen4:40
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 2–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren4:38
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Erne – Veleno – Berggren4:46
xG 0.12–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond3:51
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider13:14
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Maatta – Oesterle10:44
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Hronek11:56
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues7:07
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Compher – Rodrigues – Newhook2:01
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Blidh – Rantanen – Meyers2:04
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook3:53
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar6:50
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 3–0
- Girard – Makar3:51
xG 0.28–0.29 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Englund – Toews2:50
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).