Mon, Jan 16, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 19 | 021 | 139 |
| NSH | 212 | 012 | 05 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:24NSHJuuso ParssinenGWGAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Colton Sissons · Poke, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 18:07CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:14NSHJuuso Parssinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:55CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:25NSHTanner Jeannot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:42CGYRasmus Andersson: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:17NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:27CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ruzicka won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lewis – Ruzicka – Duehr4:55
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:07
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:13
xG 0.32–0.70 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau11:24
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Zadorov2:41
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Tanev – Weegar15:09
xG 0.99–0.91 (52%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:29
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Granlund – Niederreiter10:46
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Glass13:41
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Sissons – Parssinen – Smith6:28
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot5:37
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier13:59
xG 1.31–0.48 (73%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro11:30
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi15:11
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).