Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 19 | 114 | 227 |
| PHI | 117 | 213 | 29 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:39ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: John Klingberg, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 12:43PHIRasmus RistolainenSHAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 19:21PHIMorgan FrostGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Rasmus Ristolainen · Between legs, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 2:30PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Wade Allison · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 18:51ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Ryan Strome · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 19:16PHIKevin HayesENAssists: Wade Allison, Cam York · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:31ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P1 11:04ANAMaxime Comtois: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:21ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10ANAMaxime Comtois: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:24ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:42PHIPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:48PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:14PHINicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41ANAMax Jones: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMegna – Jones – Leason8:08
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish6:34
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Terry – Jones – McTavish2:17
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Comtois – Zegras8:47
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Klingberg2:13
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit2:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen3:50
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Farabee10:55
xG 0.82–0.24 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost9:47
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison9:08
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen8:09
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen10:39
xG 1.08–0.27 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Provorov – York13:52
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:23
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).