Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Detroit Red Wings 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 017 | 113 | 29 | 01 | 0 | 340 |
| ARI | 07 | 14 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:34DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Tyler Bertuzzi · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 11:09ARINick BjugstadAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Lawson Crouse · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 4:51DETPius SuterAssists: Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:49DETDavid PerronAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 6:43ARITravis BoydAssists: Lawson Crouse, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:53ARIDylan GuentherAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 2. DET David Perron stopped
- 3. ARI Nick Bjugstad scored
- 4. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:34DETLucas Raymond: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:54ARIBarrett Hayton: Holding2 min
- P2 8:30ARINick Bjugstad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50DETJake Walman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Rasmussen13:21
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Fabbri – Suter9:44
xG 0.74–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Veleno – Berggren7:50
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond13:46
xG 0.31–1.10 (22%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider16:37
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Maatta – Lindstrom11:42
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Hronek17:04
xG 1.17–1.52 (44%)attempts 20–29goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Guenther12:02
xG 0.96–0.44 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Kassian – Boyd – Crouse2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kassian – Boyd – Keller2:44
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton15:15
xG 0.63–0.76 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Stecher3:33
xG 0.17–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Moser7:44
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Moser3:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).