Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 17 | 014 | 110 | 231 |
| EDM | 113 | 29 | 212 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11SEADaniel SprongPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Andre Burakovsky · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:08EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:15EDMDerek RyanAssists: Vincent Desharnais, Dylan Holloway · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 12:30EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 0:22SEAVince DunnAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:23EDMZach HymanUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–4
- P3 9:18EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Dylan Holloway, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:35EDMCody Ceci: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:00EDMVincent Desharnais: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:02SEAMorgan Geekie: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:58SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:02EDMTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:59SEAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:33EDMVincent Desharnais: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev8:10
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers10:53
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie5:46
xG 0.00–0.85 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–2
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:16
xG 0.36–1.22 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak6:30
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:08
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen4:11
xG 0.10–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:27
xG 1.34–0.22 (86%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway4:35
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kane – McDavid – Ryan2:49
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Foegele3:48
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg12:57
xG 2.20–0.49 (82%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Barrie – Kulak8:34
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Nurse – Desharnais4:02
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).