Wed, Jan 18, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 13 | 14 | 01 | 419 |
| OTT | 218 | 111 | 110 | 11 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36PITJason ZuckerAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 7:44OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:44OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 15:23PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Ty Smith, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 3:07PITMark FriedmanAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 9:19OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 10:58OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 12:33PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 0:25OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:45PITJason Zucker: Holding2 min
- P1 7:09PITJeff Carter: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 10:14OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:11OTTJosh Norris: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:04OTTDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51PITMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:55PITKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:44PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:19PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19PITBryan Rust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:31OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:10PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:30OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rakell10:28
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Kapanen4:13
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Blueger – O'Connor4:18
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel6:41
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Friedman11:09
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph7:38
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:52
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Norris10:39
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Gambrell – Pinto4:23
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:28
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle9:20
xG 0.63–0.75 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker14:00
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson11:19
xG 0.78–0.63 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Holden – Brannstrom6:57
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).