Thu, Jan 19, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 310 | 214 | 533 |
| CBJ | 315 | 08 | 010 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Eric Robinson, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:05CBJJack RoslovicUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 17:43CBJNick BlankenburgAssists: Patrik Laine, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 0:22ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Isac Lundeström · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 13:07ANACam FowlerAssists: Maxime Comtois, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 15:02ANASimon BenoitAssists: Troy Terry, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 5:07ANATrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 15:31ANAMax JonesAssists: Jayson Megna, Isac Lundeström · Snap, 0.31 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:03CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:01CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:01ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:54CBJAndrew Peeke: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:50ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:13CBJTim Berni: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Comtois – Zegras13:11
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Megna – Vatrano9:19
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Lundeström11:52
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 2–2
- Carrick – Jones – Leason5:48
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Vaakanainen9:19
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit6:24
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Fowler – Klingberg8:16
xG 0.43–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Marchenko – Sillinger12:35
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson8:11
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine12:02
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Johnson8:18
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni14:13
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Boqvist12:12
xG 0.54–0.86 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Peeke – Blankenburg15:19
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).