Thu, Jan 19, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 6, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 522 | 17 | 640 |
| MTL | 09 | 07 | 29 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:30FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 8:27FLASam BennettPPAssists: Gustav Forsling, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 14:58FLAMatthew TkachukPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 16:03FLAGivani SmithAssists: Nick Cousins, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 19:17FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–0
- P3 2:12MTLRem PitlickAssists: Mike Hoffman, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 8:06MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Rem Pitlick, Jesse Ylonen · Snap, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 9:11FLARyan LombergAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (24)
- P1 2:01FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:29MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26FLANick Cousins: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:51MTLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:34MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 11:37FLAGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55MTLJesse Ylonen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:18MTLJordan Harris: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00FLAGustav Forsling: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00FLAGivani Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:13FLAMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13MTLDavid Savard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:58FLASam Bennett: Kneeing2 min
- P3 5:58FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:58MTLMike Matheson: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:46FLAGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:46MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:09MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:09MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:09FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk7:07
xG 1.16–0.37 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko8:51
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell3:14
xG 0.02–0.02 (59%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura9:19
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Gudas – Forsling2:24
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Forsling – Mahura2:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Dvorak – Pezzetta4:46
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Dach5:49
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Caufield6:33
xG 0.03–0.35 (8%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Harris2:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris5:50
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Barron – Xhekaj2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).