Thu, Jan 19, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Washington Capitals 4, Arizona Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 213 | 113 | 433 |
| ARI | 07 | 07 | 012 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 17:32WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 18:41WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 8:41WSHDylan StromeAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:10ARIMichael Carcone: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:59WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P3 2:47ARIJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P3 3:50WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:30WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:44ARIChristian Fischer: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Sheary10:17
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Milano8:22
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Hathaway9:03
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Aube-Kubel – Strome10:14
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen13:55
xG 1.15–0.13 (90%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Fehérváry – Alexeyev11:01
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk15:03
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Kassian – Carcone – McBain2:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Bjugstad – Carcone2:20
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Boyd – Carcone2:54
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – McBain – Guenther8:53
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Välimäki – Moser2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki6:05
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun17:41
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).