Sat, Jan 21, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 110 | 213 | 332 |
| FLA | 16 | 213 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:47FLAAnton LundellAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:40FLAEetu LuostarinenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 8:56MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 19:32FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:37MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 7:51FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Grigori Denisenko, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:34MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:21FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Anton Lundell, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.65 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:28MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:52FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36FLANick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:07FLAJosh Mahura: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:03FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Gaudreau – Boldy9:36
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel12:33
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar7:40
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime10:10
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton15:00
xG 0.91–0.12 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Brodin15:23
xG 0.72–0.41 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin4:08
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Lomberg – Smith5:07
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko12:13
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell14:27
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Tierney – Verhaeghe – Tkachuk4:07
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Gudas4:20
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling8:56
xG 0.48–0.27 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Mahura4:37
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).