Sun, Jan 22, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 310 | 012 | 28 | 530 |
| PHI | 114 | 18 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:14WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 8:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.17 xG3–0
- P1 18:39PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Owen Tippett, Cam York · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 18:27PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Noah Cates, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:35PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 8:44WPGKarson KuhlmanGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:33WPGKevin StenlundENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:58WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:40PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:22PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:44WPGNate Schmidt: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21WPGAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38PHITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:10PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- P3 9:04WPGAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brown won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti8:40
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Barron – Kuhlman2:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby2:24
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby4:42
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk10:25
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Samberg11:24
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:56
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost7:24
xG 0.39–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Farabee7:07
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen6:00
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen10:13
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Provorov – York13:34
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Sanheim – DeAngelo11:21
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).