Sun, Jan 22, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 116 | 013 | 136 |
| ARI | 17 | 110 | 26 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59ARIDylan GuentherAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Michael Carcone · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:39ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 9:03VGKPhil KesselPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 8:50ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 15:52ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:15ARIJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09VGKPaul Cotter: Interference2 min
- P2 7:38ARIPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47ARINick Bjugstad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:47ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Kolesar – Rondbjerg4:50
xG 0.95–0.12 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Eichel13:09
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter6:13
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Froese – Rondbjerg4:08
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak17:59
xG 1.26–0.15 (90%)attempts 25–12goals 0–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:52
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Hutton – Hague14:12
xG 0.66–0.81 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Ritchie – Fischer9:24
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Carcone – Guenther11:33
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:46
xG 0.48–0.63 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Kassian – Keller – McBain3:56
xG 0.04–0.39 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Moser13:02
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Brown – Stecher3:02
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki3:50
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).