Tue, Jan 24, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 7 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 317 | 112 | 28 | 02 | 639 |
| PIT | 314 | 115 | 216 | 14 | 749 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:08FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 10:56PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 11:56PITDanton HeinenAssists: Ryan Poehling, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P1 18:14PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Danton Heinen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P1 19:19FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Poke, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 10:34FLAAaron EkbladSHAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P2 19:19PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 4:10FLAColin WhiteAssists: Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 10:29PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Ryan Poehling, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–5
- P3 14:30PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.07 xG5–6
- P3 17:28FLACarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–6
- OT 4:06PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.12 xG6–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:43PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:45PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34PITJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:28FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:33FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:26FLABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen13:53
xG 1.33–0.70 (66%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell12:42
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Tierney – Lomberg – Denisenko2:22
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- White – Lomberg – Smith2:39
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:46
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 19–19goals 2–1
- Gudas – Forsling3:56
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Montour – Mahura2:03
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Poehling – O'Connor7:34
xG 1.28–0.29 (82%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Carter – Blueger – McGinn9:53
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:03
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell13:09
xG 0.91–1.25 (42%)attempts 21–21goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Joseph6:58
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin17:49
xG 1.08–0.73 (60%)attempts 30–18goals 2–1
- Petry – Pettersson18:34
xG 1.07–1.24 (46%)attempts 26–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).