Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 314 | 112 | 15 | 531 |
| STL | 010 | 28 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 1:25BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jeff Skinner, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 9:07BUFOwen PowerAssists: JJ Peterka, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 1:10BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Mattias Samuelsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 4:33STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 7:56STLBrayden SchennAssists: Justin Faulk, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 0:47STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:00BUFDylan CozensENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.58 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:04STLLogan Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:15STLLogan Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:13STLNiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:13BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:14BUFPeyton Krebs: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Walker
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson8:50
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 2–2
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:57
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:48
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt11:59
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power13:52
xG 1.06–0.42 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin17:14
xG 0.52–0.68 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Bryson – Lyubushkin11:52
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Brown – Neighbours6:32
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Barbashev9:46
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 2–2
- Acciari – Toropchenko – Neighbours3:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko5:23
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Tucker5:58
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk5:37
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug7:40
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).