Wed, Jan 25, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 211 | 09 | 00 | 229 |
| TOR | 18 | 016 | 110 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Joey Anderson, Alexander Kerfoot · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:09NYRFilip ChytilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:31NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 15:49TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 0:19TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:18TORPontus Holmberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:42NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:01NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min
- P3 3:34TORTimothy Liljegren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière11:57
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Goodrow – Vesey5:00
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Leschyshyn – Cuylle4:59
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Panarin8:05
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider12:49
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller15:26
xG 0.63–0.82 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren16:11
xG 0.54–0.97 (36%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews12:40
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander11:03
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews2:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Anderson – Holmberg4:09
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin4:58
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly18:59
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren11:09
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).