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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 25, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:27Goal by Holmberg (Anderson, Kerfoot)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Holl, Rielly, Kerfoot, Anderson, Holmberg · NYR Harpur, Gauthier, Leschyshyn, Schneider, Cuylle

  3. P1 3:07Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  4. P1 4:45Shot by Benn, saved by Shesterkin
  5. P1 5:18Holmberg: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Kerfoot, Nylander, Holmberg · NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Harpur, Panarin, Schneider

  6. P1 5:23Shot by Fox, saved by Samsonov4v5
  7. P1 5:33Shot by Fox, saved by Samsonov4v5
  8. P1 5:40Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Samsonov4v5
  9. P1 7:13Shot by Miller, saved by Samsonov4v5
  10. P1 7:23Shot by Trouba, saved by Samsonov
  11. P1 8:07Shot by Vesey, saved by Samsonov
  12. P1 8:20Shot by Vesey, saved by Samsonov
  13. P1 8:40Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin6v5
  14. P1 8:42Trocheck: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Holl, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews · NYR Trocheck, Goodrow, Vesey, Fox, Lindgren

  15. P1 9:35Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  16. P1 9:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  17. P1 13:31Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin
  18. P1 15:01Shot by Trouba, saved by Samsonov
  19. P1 15:02Shot by Miller, saved by Samsonov
  20. P1 15:43Shot by Giordano, saved by Shesterkin
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:48Shot by Vesey, saved by Samsonov
  24. P2 1:29Shot by Liljegren, saved by Shesterkin
  25. P2 2:08Shot by Harpur, saved by Samsonov
  26. P2 2:09Goal by Chytil, unassisted+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Benn, Engvall, Kampf, Sandin, McMann · NYR Harpur, Chytil, Kakko, Schneider, Lafrenière

  27. P2 3:11Shot by Giordano, saved by Shesterkin
  28. P2 4:18Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin
  29. P2 4:28Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin
  30. P2 4:39Shot by Panarin, saved by Samsonov
  31. P2 4:57Shot by Fox, saved by Samsonov
  32. P2 5:11Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  33. P2 5:12Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Shesterkin
  34. P2 5:52Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin
  35. P2 5:58Shot by Marner, saved by Shesterkin
  36. P2 6:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  37. P2 6:31Goal by Chytil (Kakko, Lafrenière)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews · NYR Trouba, Chytil, Miller, Kakko, Lafrenière

  38. P2 7:10Shot by Gauthier, saved by Samsonov
  39. P2 9:27Chytil: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Kerfoot, Anderson, Liljegren, Holmberg · NYR Harpur, Chytil, Kakko, Schneider, Lafrenière

  40. P2 9:40Shot by Kreider, saved by Samsonov5v4
  41. P2 10:04Shot by Marner, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  42. P2 10:08Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  43. P2 10:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  44. P2 11:38Shot by Chytil, saved by Samsonov
  45. P2 12:26Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin
  46. P2 14:12Shot by Miller, saved by Samsonov
  47. P2 17:01Schneider: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · NYR Trocheck, Vesey, Harpur, Panarin, Lindgren

  48. P2 17:16Shot by Kreider, saved by Samsonov5v4
  49. P2 17:52Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  50. P2 17:54Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  51. P2 17:56Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  52. P2 0:00Period end
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 2:37Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Samsonov
  55. P3 3:34Liljegren: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Kerfoot, Nylander, Liljegren, Holmberg · NYR Trouba, Vesey, Leschyshyn, Schneider, Cuylle

  56. P3 5:11Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Samsonov4v5
  57. P3 5:50Shot by Chytil, saved by Samsonov
  58. P3 7:03Shot by Gauthier, saved by Samsonov
  59. P3 8:01Shot by Marner, saved by Shesterkin
  60. P3 10:51Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Samsonov
  61. P3 11:27Shot by Trocheck, saved by Samsonov
  62. P3 13:40Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  63. P3 13:46Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Shesterkin
  64. P3 15:09Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Shesterkin
  65. P3 15:48Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  66. P3 15:49Goal by Liljegren (Tavares, Nylander)+41 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Nylander, Engvall, Liljegren · NYR Kreider, Trocheck, Goodrow, Trouba, Miller

  67. P3 16:45Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  68. P3 16:46Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  69. P3 17:42Shot by Trocheck, saved by Samsonov
  70. P3 18:05Shot by Goodrow, saved by Samsonov
  71. P3 18:32Shot by Giordano, saved by Shesterkin
  72. P3 18:34Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin
  73. P3 19:11Shot by Panarin, saved by Samsonov
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. OT 0:00Period start
  76. OT 0:19Goal by Marner (Liljegren)3v3+48 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · NYR Zibanejad, Panarin, Miller

  77. OT 0:19Period end4v4
  78. OT 0:19Final