Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 118 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 237 |
| WSH | 122 | 012 | 17 | 04 | 2 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:37PITDanton HeinenAssists: Drew O'Connor, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 5:17WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 12:52PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell scored
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:26PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:36WSHGarnet Hathaway: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:56PITTeddy Blueger: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 7:45WSHAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:45WSHAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:45PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Poehling – O'Connor6:22
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Blueger – McGinn10:08
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel15:35
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell12:18
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:52
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph11:00
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Pettersson17:47
xG 0.41–0.77 (35%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Mantha – Sheary12:26
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel11:10
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Johansson – Milano9:05
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome12:55
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Irwin2:04
xG 0.16–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk14:53
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Irwin – Fehérváry5:18
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).