Sat, Jan 28, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 19 | 110 | 228 |
| COL | 214 | 112 | 15 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22COLAlex NewhookAssists: Logan O'Connor, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:36COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Samuel Girard, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 4:48COLEvan RodriguesGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 16:27STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 9:40STLIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:57COLMatt NietoENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:18STLColton Parayko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:24STLTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:24COLMatt Nieto: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:13COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13STLNikita Alexandrov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:13COLLogan O'Connor: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:13STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:13COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43COLSamuel Girard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:54STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Barbashev – Acciari10:42
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou11:01
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Leivo – Brown – Neighbours4:28
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov5:13
xG 0.13–0.56 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug8:11
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola2:34
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko10:32
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – O'Connor – Newhook8:12
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Nieto – Compher – Rantanen9:17
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues11:26
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:50
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Hunt – Englund3:20
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Hunt2:17
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).