Sat, Jan 28, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 112 | 26 | 433 |
| WPG | 016 | 07 | 017 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:15PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 11:53PHIKieffer BellowsAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Noah Cates · Slap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 3:11PHIOwen TippettAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam York · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 6:48PHITony DeAngeloAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:11WPGLogan Stanley: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:12PHIJoel Farabee: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P2 4:23WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:30WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30PHIOwen Tippett: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:37PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P3 12:31PHINoah Cates: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Tippett – Cates4:24
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Bellows3:20
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bellows – Frost3:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Brown – Farabee2:21
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York6:27
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo5:27
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Sanheim – DeAngelo4:17
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Scheifele – Connor – Kuhlman2:31
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 0–2
- Gagner – Maenalanen – Stenlund5:33
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti7:26
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman5:20
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Samberg6:51
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt2:22
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk3:09
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).