Sun, Jan 29, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 08 | 110 | 125 |
| CAR | 115 | 113 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 12:05CARPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 1:57CARSeth JarvisUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 3:22BOSTaylor HallAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 15:40CARJordan StaalENAssists: Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:02BOSNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:27CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min
- P2 1:32CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 5:37CARBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:13CARCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:00BOSDerek Forbort: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:00BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:31BOSMarc McLaughlin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:17BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P3 11:47CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P3 15:24CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic8:01
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Zacha2:13
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Smith – Greer – McLaughlin5:22
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak3:08
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Carlo2:43
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton3:58
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:30
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis8:38
xG 0.75–0.18 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook7:54
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:25
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen5:04
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:03
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Chatfield8:02
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- de Haan – Coghlan12:52
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).