Sun, Jan 29, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 012 | 05 | 124 |
| TOR | 010 | 413 | 14 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:17WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:29TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 7:00TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, John Tavares · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:45TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 14:20TORPierre EngvallAssists: TJ Brodie, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 16:47TORZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:01TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 12:01WSHLars Eller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:15TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:41WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:45TORJustin Holl: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:31TORRasmus Sandin: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:37WSHErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:12TORWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel10:13
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome8:51
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Milano5:00
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Milano2:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Irwin3:51
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen10:00
xG 0.40–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Irwin – Fehérváry4:51
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Anderson – Kampf9:25
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Nylander6:59
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner10:56
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Holmberg6:41
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:08
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Giordano – Holl13:35
xG 0.49–0.34 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin15:16
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).