Mon, Feb 6, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 09 | 210 | 04 | 1 | 234 |
| DAL | 113 | 118 | 06 | 04 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08DALNils LundkvistAssists: Radek Faksa, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 7:35DALRoope HintzAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 11:04ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 12:30ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. ANA Mason McTavish scored
- 5. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 6. ANA Adam Henrique stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:24ANASam Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:33DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P1 17:51ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P2 4:50DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:37ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P2 18:32ANAFrank Vatrano: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 18:32ANAFrank Vatrano: Abuse of officials10 min
- P2 18:32ANAMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28DALMason Marchment: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:20DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras2:15
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström7:45
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Jones – McTavish7:36
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Zegras8:58
xG 0.24–1.06 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Klingberg2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Fowler13:40
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Beaulieu5:28
xG 0.04–0.37 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:09
xG 0.96–0.10 (91%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Marchment11:55
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:35
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kiviranta6:56
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist11:42
xG 1.12–0.23 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:03
xG 1.26–0.49 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen15:16
xG 1.02–0.72 (59%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).