Tue, Feb 7, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 38 | 210 | 527 |
| DET | 110 | 112 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 3:02EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Philip Broberg, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:38EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:55EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Vincent Desharnais, Philip Broberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 19:51DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Moritz Seider, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 15:38EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 17:33EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 16:01EDMBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P2 1:00EDMBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:00DETRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:47EDMDerek Ryan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:13DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P2 17:45DETMichael Rasmussen: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:03DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:03EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:03DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20EDMKlim Kostin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:20EDMVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:13EDMKlim Kostin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00EDMBrett Kulak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:55
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod2:03
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin8:29
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid3:10
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Bouchard2:16
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak8:03
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais2:03
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond8:01
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Suter3:11
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen6:28
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Kubalik – Suter6:30
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider9:57
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Walman2:40
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Hronek9:40
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).