Tue, Feb 7, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Seattle Kraken 0, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 013 | 011 | 032 |
| NYI | 29 | 211 | 08 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59NYISamuel BolducGWGAssists: Scott Mayfield, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:29NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:38NYIZach PariseAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 5:08NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 15:10NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:40SEAJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Tanev – Geekie3:24
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Beniers2:00
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Wennberg – McCann11:54
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:02
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn19:12
xG 0.79–0.95 (45%)attempts 22–20goals 0–0
- Megna – Soucy15:09
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:50
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Nelson12:25
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching9:25
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom9:46
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Bailey – Horvat – Barzal10:45
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson14:40
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock17:21
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc18:08
xG 0.73–0.70 (51%)attempts 17–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).