Thu, Feb 9, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 19 | 015 | 136 |
| DET | 05 | 18 | 14 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:07CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 19:46DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: David Perron, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 5:51DETFilip ZadinaGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:39DETFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P2 4:45CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:26CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:54CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:05DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:09DETBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:09CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier11:54
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:37
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:16
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka6:51
xG 0.03–0.49 (6%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:20
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Weegar – Zadorov14:17
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Gilbert9:58
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Suter – Zadina6:35
xG 0.52–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Perron – Veleno – Berggren11:04
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond11:03
xG 0.34–0.57 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Copp – Fabbri – Rasmussen10:15
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 1–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hagg8:49
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hagg – Seider2:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider10:39
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).