Thu, Feb 9, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 6, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 116 | 310 | 634 |
| NYI | 27 | 211 | 111 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Josh Bailey, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:44VANOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 12:30VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller, Riley Stillman · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 14:34NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 2:25NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 15:13NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 16:04VANNils AmanAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 4:38VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 8:28VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 16:58VANAnthony BeauvillierPPGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–4
- P3 19:11NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:48NYIZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:25VANConor Garland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:34NYISamuel Bolduc: Interference2 min
- P3 3:52NYIAdam Pelech: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:01VANEthan Bear: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:38NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55VANQuinn Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Lazar – Aman7:04
xG 0.85–0.28 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Podkolzin2:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko7:16
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Boeser – Beauvillier – Pettersson3:11
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes11:15
xG 1.06–0.78 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Myers – Stillman2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Bear2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Holmstrom6:50
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Bailey – Horvat – Barzal9:54
xG 0.27–0.05 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Nelson9:49
xG 0.82–0.69 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 2–2
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching6:14
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:20
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 3–2
- Dobson – Romanov6:17
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – Dobson2:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).