Fri, Feb 10, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 05 | 19 | 02 | 326 |
| CHI | 116 | 110 | 114 | 14 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28ARIClayton KellerAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:34ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 13:53CHISeth JonesAssists: Boris Katchouk, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 2:43CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Sam Lafferty · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 14:34CHIColin BlackwellAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Connor Murphy · Bat, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 17:33ARINick BjugstadAssists: Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:37CHICaleb JonesGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:03CHICaleb Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:45ARIPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P2 17:35CHICaleb Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 14:55ARINick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:41
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer10:10
xG 0.18–0.09 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Kassian – O'Brien – McBain7:30
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:12
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Välimäki18:49
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 20–11goals 3–1
- Brown – Stecher12:21
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Moser12:04
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Raddysh – Kurashev12:00
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Athanasiou – Lafferty9:07
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson7:23
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Johnson – Dickinson13:40
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones16:03
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Johnson – Murphy15:31
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 14–21goals 1–2
- Johnson – Jones2:46
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).