Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 113 | 114 | 234 |
| DET | 210 | 18 | 27 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08DETDylan LarkinAssists: Moritz Seider, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 2:35DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:02VANAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:17DETDylan LarkinPPGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, David Perron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 2:26DETFilip HronekAssists: Olli Maatta, Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 9:05DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 10:25VANElias PetterssonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:18VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:18VANJ.T. Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:12VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:49DETOlli Maatta: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:56VANRiley Stillman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25VANEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:38DETFilip Hronek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:27VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27DETJordan Oesterle: Interference2 min
- P3 19:26DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Garland – Podkolzin9:10
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Boeser – Beauvillier – Pettersson11:11
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Di Giuseppe – Lazar – Aman6:32
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Joshua – Dries – Kuzmenko8:00
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Stillman13:15
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Hughes2:58
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Bear – Hughes10:26
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Suter – Zadina7:01
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Bertuzzi – Larkin9:09
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Veleno – Berggren8:19
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider11:52
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Maatta – Hronek14:48
xG 0.33–0.50 (39%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
- Hagg – Oesterle13:29
xG 0.11–0.67 (14%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).