Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 212 | 314 | 640 |
| OTT | 07 | 311 | 011 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:21OTTJake SandersonAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:44EDMZach HymanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 15:18EDMRyan McLeodSHAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 15:35OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 17:58OTTErik BrannstromAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 3:05EDMJesse PuljujarviGWGAssists: Brett Kulak, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 7:24EDMDerek RyanSHAssists: Brett Kulak, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 14:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.22 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:49OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P1 13:35OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:25EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:44OTTAlex DeBrincat: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 7:19EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:34EDMEvander Kane: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:51EDMDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:23OTTDylan Gambrell: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:12EDMTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:50OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – McDavid4:09
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid7:37
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway3:20
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin5:14
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg8:11
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais4:20
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Barrie – Kulak8:08
xG 0.11–0.33 (24%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Greig7:03
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto3:22
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Joseph – Tkachuk – Stützle6:19
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Batherson – Pinto6:25
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom8:58
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Holden – Hamonic2:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub2:39
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).