Sat, Feb 11, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 5, St. Louis Blues 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 09 | 39 | 00 | 528 |
| STL | 05 | 217 | 313 | 12 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:31ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 10:20STLBrandon SaadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:19STLSammy BlaisAssists: Nick Leddy, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:27STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 6:44STLCalle RosenAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 8:33STLCalle RosenAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 9:47ARIClayton KellerAssists: Barrett Hayton, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 13:14ARINick BjugstadPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–5
- P3 19:03ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 1:02STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:12STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:53ARIBarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48ARIZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:12ARIDysin Mayo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:09STLSammy Blais: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:07ARIJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:21STLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:05STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13ARIJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:07
xG 0.64–0.58 (52%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:21
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Kassian – Ritchie – McBain2:19
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer6:14
xG 0.10–0.64 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Stecher – Välimäki14:52
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Mayo4:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Moser6:17
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Thomas10:19
xG 0.62–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Buchnevich11:09
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Barbashev – Blais – Acciari6:59
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko4:34
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRosen – Tucker10:41
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug11:20
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Rosen2:16
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).