Sun, Feb 12, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 4, Washington Capitals 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 113 | 213 | 433 |
| WSH | 09 | 14 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54SJSEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Jonah Gadjovich, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:04SJSAlexander BarabanovPPGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 16:56WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 12:55SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–1
- P3 17:49SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:31SJSMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:23WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37SJSScott Harrington: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:09WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12WSHGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:50SJSOskar Lindblom: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:20WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Eyssimont – Barabanov8:32
xG 1.43–0.65 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Lindblom – Gregor – Sturm8:16
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Lorentz – Gadjovich5:12
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hertl – Meier8:33
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Ferraro9:44
xG 1.27–0.84 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Harrington9:19
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Ferraro3:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Aube-Kubel – Strome4:16
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Milano5:16
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Milano – Aube-Kubel – Strome2:56
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Sheary5:35
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk7:11
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk3:48
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:48
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).