Mon, Feb 13, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 116 | 19 | 01 | 337 |
| OTT | 15 | 06 | 212 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:47CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:55CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 6:40CGYDillon DubeAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:46OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Shane Pinto · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:32OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Tim Stützle, Erik Brannstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:55OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:54CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:16OTTDerick Brassard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:16CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P1 15:40OTTAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:44OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:44CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:29OTTTravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:53OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07CGYNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:03CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:49
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:02
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie7:57
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier9:02
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin15:10
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Stone – Gilbert9:00
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov14:45
xG 0.39–0.62 (38%)attempts 25–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Tkachuk – Stützle3:20
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle8:33
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Batherson – Pinto2:40
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kelly4:05
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub2:23
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub10:02
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev10:35
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).