Mon, Feb 13, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 6, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 16 | 310 | 623 |
| VAN | 07 | 111 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:58DETDylan LarkinAssists: Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:24DETDylan LarkinPPGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 1:31VANSheldon DriesAssists: Conor Garland, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 8:09DETRobby FabbriAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp · Poke, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 0:40DETGustav LindstromAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Robby Fabbri · Poke, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 5:19DETPius SuterAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Gustav Lindstrom · Snap, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 7:52DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Joseph Veleno, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:37DETJoseph Veleno: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:00VANQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:40DETFilip Zadina: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:23DETRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P3 13:25DETFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P3 19:00DETVille Husso: Penalty shot goalkeeper displaced net0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fabbri – Rasmussen10:49
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Suter – Zadina9:03
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:41
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Perron – Veleno – Berggren10:40
xG 0.06–0.56 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Lindstrom12:54
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Seider14:49
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Hronek17:16
xG 0.33–0.66 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Lazar – Aman9:18
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko4:19
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Dries – Kuzmenko6:16
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boeser – Beauvillier – Pettersson7:18
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Stillman15:45
xG 1.00–0.17 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bear – Hughes13:25
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Myers – Hughes2:05
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).