Wed, Feb 15, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 114 | 17 | 08 | 229 |
| TOR | 318 | 213 | 011 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 1:02CHISam LaffertyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:14TORRasmus SandinAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 11:21TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 0:46CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 7:37TORJohn TavaresAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 16:07TORConor TimminsAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:19CHIMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:08TORConor Timmins: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12CHIMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:33CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:38TORConor Timmins: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:23TORPontus Holmberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Domi – Kurashev12:27
xG 0.60–0.98 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman9:52
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Katchouk – Johnson8:43
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty9:51
xG 0.22–0.95 (19%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Murphy14:32
xG 0.31–0.71 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
- Jones – Mitchell13:51
xG 0.61–1.09 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- McCabe – Jones15:45
xG 0.15–1.61 (9%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews9:52
xG 0.93–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner9:29
xG 0.88–0.20 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Anderson – Aston-Reese – Holmberg9:45
xG 0.72–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Kampf8:10
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:09
xG 1.08–0.26 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Timmins – Sandin12:30
xG 1.04–0.25 (81%)attempts 16–12goals 3–0
- Giordano – Liljegren13:13
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).