Wed, Feb 15, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 27 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 523 |
| EDM | 010 | 216 | 217 | 02 | 1 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, David Perron · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:19DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Andrew Copp · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 1:26EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:06DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: David Perron, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 11:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 16:12DETOlli MaattaAssists: Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 3:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 5:27EDMDerek RyanAssists: Klim Kostin, Philip Broberg · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 2. DET Robby Fabbri stopped
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 4. DET David Perron scored
- 5. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 7. EDM Zach Hyman stopped
- 8. DET Moritz Seider stopped
- 9. EDM Evander Kane stopped
- 10. DET Pius Suter scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:09EDMKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:15DETJoseph Veleno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:38EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:46DETRobert Hagg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Suter – Zadina10:12
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:20
xG 0.24–0.49 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Perron – Veleno – Berggren9:20
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Copp – Fabbri – Rasmussen12:05
xG 0.25–0.79 (24%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hagg – Lindstrom14:28
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider15:28
xG 0.50–1.03 (33%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
- Maatta – Hronek15:30
xG 0.51–1.05 (32%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid15:36
xG 1.65–0.25 (87%)attempts 24–5goals 2–1
- Foegele – McLeod – Holloway5:01
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – McLeod – Holloway2:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Puljujarvi – Kostin8:39
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak16:54
xG 1.44–0.35 (80%)attempts 27–8goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse17:54
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Broberg13:46
xG 0.66–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).