Wed, Feb 15, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 7, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 219 | 212 | 313 | 744 |
| ANA | 03 | 39 | 010 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08BUFTyson JostAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:58BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:37ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Trevor Zegras, Derek Grant · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:48ANACam FowlerAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 13:08ANACam FowlerAssists: Derek Grant, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 13:43BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Jack Quinn, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 18:03BUFCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 6:13BUFAlex TuchAssists: Dylan Cozens, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 11:46BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Quinn, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 18:53BUFDylan CozensAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.10 xG7–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:46ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:02ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:09BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09BUFHenri Jokiharju: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:44ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:06BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:18ANASimon Benoit: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:09BUFKale Clague: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:09ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:09ANARyan Strome: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:09BUFKale Clague: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:43ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jost won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:44
xG 1.40–0.33 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn8:01
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost11:28
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka8:25
xG 0.03–0.79 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power14:17
xG 1.17–0.73 (61%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin13:35
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Clague – Lyubushkin10:50
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Strome – Zegras9:06
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 3–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström5:56
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Carrick – Megna – Leason6:21
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Vatrano – McTavish5:27
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit13:38
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Benoit2:03
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Fowler12:22
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).