Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 6, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 320 | 26 | 636 |
| WSH | 06 | 112 | 214 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:32FLAMarc StaalAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:20FLAColin WhiteAssists: Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 15:51WSHDylan StromeAssists: T.J. Oshie, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 17:03FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Givani Smith · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 13:04WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:28WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:39FLAAnton LundellENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.78 xG5–3
- P3 19:45FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.74 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:24FLAGrigori Denisenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:32WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 13:20FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 18:48WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:48WSHT.J. Oshie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:48FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51FLAColin White: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:21FLABrandon Montour: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:51FLAMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Lundell9:28
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg9:20
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- White – Smith – Denisenko5:31
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen10:09
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura11:15
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour12:30
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Montour – Mahura2:00
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Mantha – Strome3:14
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel12:25
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary3:45
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Sheary2:58
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk10:19
xG 1.24–0.77 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen10:21
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Orlov – Fehérváry2:37
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).