Thu, Feb 16, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 18 | 06 | 222 |
| CAR | 217 | 012 | 412 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Rem Pitlick, Jesse Ylonen · Bat, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:14CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:47CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 15:01MTLRafael Harvey-PinardPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 2:05CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 3:53CARSeth JarvisAssists: Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 5:00CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 19:40CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:19MTLMichael Pezzetta: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:43CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P2 13:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:37MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:54MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 17:44CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:34
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Belzile8:10
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Anderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard10:40
xG 0.42–0.71 (37%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Armia – Drouin – Dvorak7:23
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harris14:34
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris2:34
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson4:03
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:00
xG 1.40–0.52 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 3–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:45
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi8:22
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen8:51
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:52
xG 1.47–0.37 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 4–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:36
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield12:25
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).