Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 116 | 113 | 07 | 236 |
| STL | 113 | 212 | 110 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:32STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:30NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:00STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Nathan Walker, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 5:35STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:32NJDErik HaulaAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 11:42STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:58STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:58NJDMichael McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:58STLTorey Krug: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:14NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P3 11:07NJDMiles Wood: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40NJDJesper Bratt: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Zetterlund – Sharangovich13:26
xG 1.18–0.65 (64%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod7:58
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier6:50
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Boqvist – Mercer4:32
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bahl13:49
xG 1.42–0.84 (63%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler14:05
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
- Graves – Marino14:16
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Buchnevich – Barbashev12:40
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko7:24
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Blais – Acciari – Neighbours10:19
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas12:43
xG 0.61–1.25 (33%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRosen – Tucker13:16
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko15:57
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:01
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).