Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 313 | 14 | 524 |
| CGY | 18 | 112 | 015 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22CGYElias LindholmSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 18:59DETDominik KubalikAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:27DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, David Perron · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:03CGYDillon DubeAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 15:21DETDominik KubalikGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 18:43DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 3:55DETPius SuterAssists: Filip Zadina, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:07CGYTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:14CGYMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:49DETFilip Zadina: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:27CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Suter – Zadina8:18
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Bertuzzi – Larkin8:39
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Copp – Fabbri – Rasmussen9:57
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Perron – Veleno – Berggren9:26
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider15:09
xG 0.53–0.44 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Maatta – Oesterle15:58
xG 0.86–1.15 (43%)attempts 12–25goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Hronek15:55
xG 0.08–1.14 (6%)attempts 2–22goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier12:41
xG 1.04–0.26 (80%)attempts 22–4goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie9:23
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:39
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:11
xG 0.67–0.74 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar15:14
xG 0.94–0.07 (93%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov13:56
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 22–12goals 0–2
- Hanifin – Andersson15:22
xG 0.75–0.88 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).