Thu, Feb 16, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 01 | 09 | 29 | 219 |
| SEA | 212 | 38 | 110 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01SEAJared McCannSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:39SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Justin Schultz, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:52SEAJustin SchultzPPGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 11:26SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Yanni Gourde, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 14:43SEAYanni GourdePPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 0:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 10:37SEAMatty BeniersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 14:11PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:23SEARyan Donato: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:51PHIWade Allison: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:24SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:24PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:21PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09PHIPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00SEARyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00SEARyan Donato: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Konecny – Cates4:51
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Brown – Konecny3:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Konecny – Frost4:14
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Tippett – Cates2:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim14:08
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Provorov – York16:57
xG 0.47–0.70 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Seeler – DeAngelo14:58
xG 0.60–0.84 (42%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Tanev10:35
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:23
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Hayden – Donato – Geekie12:22
xG 0.53–0.56 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:27
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn18:14
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Schultz – Soucy14:29
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:06
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).