Fri, Feb 17, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 06 | 214 | 12 | 432 |
| OTT | 09 | 111 | 27 | 04 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 7:31OTTShane PintoAssists: Derick Brassard, Nikita Zaitsev · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:11OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:53OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 10:49CHISam LaffertySHUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 16:55CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:52CHIAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:04CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:30CHITaylor Raddysh: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:32OTTParker Kelly: Holding2 min
- P3 2:34OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:40CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lafferty won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty9:03
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Katchouk – Johnson7:59
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Kane – Domi – Kurashev11:24
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman8:01
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones17:45
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murphy14:41
xG 0.37–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Jones – Mitchell13:48
xG 0.31–0.82 (27%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Tkachuk – Stützle8:11
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Batherson – Pinto3:18
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Motte – Gambrell – Kelly6:57
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Joseph – Pinto2:22
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev13:07
xG 0.72–0.41 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Chabot3:05
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).