Fri, Feb 17, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 118 | 319 | 07 | 444 |
| NYI | 18 | 210 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 13:56NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:53PITRickard RakellAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:35PITJason ZuckerAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Chad Ruhwedel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 14:25NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Scott Mayfield, Alexander Romanov · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 18:57PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 19:32NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Sebastian Aho · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 5:01NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 17:17NYIZach PariseGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:08PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:44NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:20PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust13:16
xG 1.80–0.40 (82%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Archibald – Blueger – O'Connor8:41
xG 0.82–0.14 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:01
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:05
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson18:07
xG 2.02–0.63 (76%)attempts 30–9goals 0–2
- Ruhwedel – Joseph11:23
xG 0.70–0.15 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:45
xG 1.05–1.17 (47%)attempts 21–22goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal16:19
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching4:22
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson13:20
xG 0.70–0.98 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Bailey – Cizikas – Holmstrom4:08
xG 0.00–0.70 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Aho3:03
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Romanov13:37
xG 0.20–0.29 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock17:31
xG 0.87–1.15 (43%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).