Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Carter-Finley Stadium, RaleighOutdoor game
Washington Capitals 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 08 | 110 | 125 |
| CAR | 110 | 312 | 013 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 5:47CARPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 8:48CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brent Burns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 11:17CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Martin Necas, Frederik Andersen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 10:32WSHTom WilsonAssists: Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:44CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:59CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:38WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:33WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:16WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36WSHAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:36CARJordan Martinook: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:36WSHAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel7:27
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Mantha2:47
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Milano8:15
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary10:15
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Fehérváry4:10
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Irwin – Fehérváry4:20
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:15
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis15:08
xG 1.21–0.30 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:00
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:44
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:27
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce16:16
xG 1.07–0.37 (74%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- de Haan – Chatfield13:12
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin14:34
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).