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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Arizona Coyotes 5, Los Angeles Kings 6 (SO)

Away

Arizona Coyotes

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Los Angeles Kings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.

LAK winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ARI16115310010532
LAK5150709062637

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:00LAKKevin FialaPPUnassisted · Poke, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:06ARIJoshua BrownAssists: Victor Soderstrom, Travis Boyd · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:56LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P1 11:56LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Alex Iafallo, Kevin Fiala · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P1 14:48LAKMatt RoyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P1 15:48LAKKevin FialaAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
  7. P2 15:40ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
  8. P3 0:37ARIClayton KellerAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
  9. P3 7:06ARITravis BoydAssists: Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
  10. P3 7:50ARIChristian FischerAssists: Joshua Brown, Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Gabriel Vilardi scored
  2. 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
  3. 3. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
  4. 4. ARI Nick Bjugstad stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:58ARIJack McBain: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 5:32LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 5:32ARIJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 11:09ARIZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 14:52LAKMikey Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 14:52LAKViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 5:04LAKTobias Bjornfot: Interference2 min
  8. P3 17:01ARIJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
  9. OT 2:01ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
49% to win51% to win
← ARI attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARILAK
32Shots on goal37
4.0Expected goals5.2
49Shot attempts77
25Faceoffs won27
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
31Hits19
22Blocked shots9
10Giveaways4
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:56

    xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0

  2. Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:48

    xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1

  3. Kassian – O'Brien – McBain5:17

    xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  4. Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer7:52

    xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. Stecher – Välimäki15:20

    xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0

  2. Brown – Soderstrom9:25

    xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0

  3. Nemeth – Stecher2:32

    xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestFiala – Iafallo – Lizotte9:56

    xG 0.90–0.29 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2

  2. Lemieux – Vilardi – Kupari5:49

    xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  3. Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:31

    xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0

  4. Danault – Arvidsson – Vilardi3:49

    xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWalker – Bjornfot11:19

    xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0

  2. Roy – Durzi12:53

    xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0

  3. Anderson – Durzi2:08

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 5.2 xGARI 4.0 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #81 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 9 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.

LAK winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).