Sun, Feb 19, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 5, Colorado Avalanche 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 314 | 112 | 03 | 540 |
| COL | 015 | 29 | 311 | 17 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:08EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:14EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 7:37EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 8:34COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 12:48COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:42EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Devin Shore, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 0:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 3:58EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci · Slap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 9:30COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Bowen Byram, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 15:48COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: J.T. Compher, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–5
- OT 4:38COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Devon Toews, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:13EDMWarren Foegele: Interference2 min
- P1 6:24EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:00EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
- P2 5:22EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:25COLAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Foegele – McLeod7:24
xG 0.48–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – McDavid3:23
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto2:21
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Puljujarvi4:40
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse16:19
xG 1.63–0.63 (72%)attempts 22–13goals 2–2
- Barrie – Kulak13:41
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Bouchard – Broberg14:01
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor3:42
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook2:51
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:36
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Rodrigues5:49
xG 0.02–0.37 (5%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Girard – Byram4:14
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- Englund – Girard2:04
xG 0.01–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Englund – Byram3:18
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).