Sun, Feb 19, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Arizona Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 112 | 116 | 01 | 236 |
| ARI | 210 | 04 | 09 | 12 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14ARITravis BoydAssists: Troy Stecher, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:28ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 13:23CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Andrew Peeke · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 15:07CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Boone Jenner · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:00ARIBarrett HaytonGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:55CBJTim Berni: Holding2 min
- P2 0:02ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:02CBJErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:32ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:30ARILiam O'Brien: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:13ARINick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:13CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger5:48
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pederson – Johnson – Sillinger4:01
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Jenner – Laine – Marchenko13:14
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Foudy3:06
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Blankenburg17:30
xG 1.19–0.83 (59%)attempts 23–16goals 1–2
- Peeke – Bayreuther2:02
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni14:59
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton15:14
xG 1.04–0.81 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli12:19
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain4:54
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer7:00
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Moser11:36
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Soderstrom4:20
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Stecher – Soderstrom3:55
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).