Mon, Feb 20, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 117 | 38 | 432 |
| PIT | 119 | 118 | 09 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:19NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:26PITJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 8:34NYIBo HorvatAssists: Hudson Fasching · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:15NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Matt Martin, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:35NYIBrock NelsonENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (23)
- P1 10:33NYISebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21NYIHudson Fasching: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38NYIZach Parise: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:59PITBrock McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:15NYIRoss Johnston: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:15PITJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15PITJason Zucker: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:15PITJason Zucker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:15NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15NYIRyan Pulock: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15PITMarcus Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15NYIBrock Nelson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:15PITJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:43PITBrock McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:53NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 3:53PITJake Guentzel: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:53NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:52PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Durandeau8:50
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Lee – Horvat5:03
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom4:44
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Martin – Andreoff – Johnston2:30
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson8:24
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Aho4:56
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:05
xG 0.52–0.79 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust8:19
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – O'Connor4:58
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:14
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel11:31
xG 0.77–0.87 (47%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Joseph9:34
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Petry – Pettersson12:25
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:57
xG 0.82–0.75 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).