Mon, Feb 20, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 29 | 14 | 18 | 421 |
| NYR | 020 | 112 | 019 | 151 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:32WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:04WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:00NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 15:29WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Mason Appleton · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:37NYRK'Andre Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:39WPGSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:39NYRVincent Trocheck: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:28WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:12WPGDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:10WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:51WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chytil won the faceoff against Stenlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Appleton13:33
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Kuhlman5:46
xG 0.00–0.05 (7%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Dubois10:09
xG 0.46–0.77 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Gagner – Lowry – Barron8:39
xG 0.05–1.33 (3%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – Pionk14:38
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Stanley10:12
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:10
xG 0.00–0.33 (1%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin11:59
xG 1.19–0.30 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey9:13
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Motte – Leschyshyn7:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière10:28
xG 0.52–0.58 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:50
xG 1.21–0.58 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller16:32
xG 1.10–0.94 (54%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Schneider12:30
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).