Tue, Feb 21, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 01 | 112 | 125 |
| TBL | 09 | 422 | 213 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:15TBLNick PaulAssists: Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:48TBLRoss ColtonPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:51TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nick Perbix, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 13:10TBLZach BogosianAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ross Colton · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 1:06TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
- P3 2:23TBLCorey PerryAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nick Perbix · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 6:28ANARyan StromeAssists: Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:53ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P1 2:55TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:32TBLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P1 15:54ANADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 1:28ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:51ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:42ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:46TBLMikhail Sergachev: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:46ANAMax Jones: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:12TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:12ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:12TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:12ANASam Carrick: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:57TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:35TBLZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Comtois – Zegras3:12
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Megna – Jones – McTavish2:13
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Jones – McTavish3:46
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Strome – Zegras5:03
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – White2:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Benoit2:26
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Fowler10:12
xG 0.59–0.75 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Namestnikov – Bellemare7:42
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:30
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton8:12
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:19
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Perbix9:25
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 3–0
- Bogosian – Hedman9:24
xG 0.95–0.55 (63%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Cernak – Sergachev8:15
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).